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Comment on Central Valley Water Forum

Thanks to the organizers and presenters at the forum yesterday. I was very favorably impressed and surprised also at the turnout of mostly progressives.

Particularly, I'd like to comment on Dr. David Cehrs' [spoken "sears"] presentation. Dr. Cehrs is a hydrologist and professor at Reedly College and was right on the number speaking about the unsustainability of water demand. His comments were directed at the situation here in the San Joaquin Valley but they could have just as well be directed at global demand.

He summarized his theme by stating flatly that with water being in finite supply, we can't grow both food and people. One or the other will need to be limited and since rationing water [or any commodity for that matter] or rationing children are politically unacceptable alternatives neither is likely to happen before nature does it for us.

Biology is replete with examples of this [my example here] where the phenomenon is known as "species die-off". There is little reason to believe that Homo sapiens are exempt from the laws of nature. Yep, in the end, Malthus will be correct.

And, looking at the larger picture, we not only have unsustainable demand for water and children but there is also unsustainable demand for oil, metals, arable land, health care and, among oligarchs demand for money and power at the expense of regular people. Could all this lead to anything BUT a population collapse? I would certainly be interested in any evidence, historical or scientific, that would support an alternative conclusion.

In the early 70s the Club of Rome published a best selling non-fiction book, "The Limits to Growth". The surviving authors have published two sequels, a 20 year sequel in the 90s,and a 30 year sequel in the 2000s. The books are famous for their computer projections, most of which, under various scenarios picture bell-shaped curves for population ending in collapse.

Since the publication of the earlier editions, little has been done to heed the warnings or implement necessary changes [such as limiting industrial production, pollution, population, resource depletion and the like] and it looks to me that the time has just about come to pay the price.

The prudent citizen has no alternative but to join others of like-mind in preparation for a very unpleasant future. We can be sure that government will not save us.

Thanks for your interest,

John Warner

Views: 1

Comment by Chip Ashley on March 18, 2010 at 11:36am
Thanks, John. If we Homo sapiens don't get more sapient than we apparently are--our inability to control ourselves and our greed--we will prove ourselves in the end no smarter than a culture of bacteria in a petri dish, whose growth and collapse are described by a curve whose left side looks like a bell and whose right side looks like a cliff.
Comment by John Warner on March 18, 2010 at 3:20pm
You've got it Chip. The horsemen, from all I can see, are on their way. I appreciate your comment.
Comment by Chip Ashley on March 19, 2010 at 8:12am
I'm an Edward Abbey fan, John, so I reluctantly welcome those four horsemen. Abbey of course is the one who said, "Growth for growth's sake is the ideology of a cancer cell." The horsemen will carry with them saddlebags full of a special kind of chemotherapy called Apocalypse.

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